Summary: SpaceX got an important win last Friday when it successfully launched the Crew 10 mission to the ISS, providing a long overdue “Orbital Uber” ride for the stranded Boeing Starliner astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams. However, numerous recent setbacks threaten to overshadow this achievement, including failures in the Starship program and some uncharacteristic hiccups with the workhorse Falcon 9 rocket. We dive deep into the ramifications and exhort SpaceX to get its act together ASAP.
Transcript:
Welcome to the Edge of Space
I’m your host, Randall C. Kennedy.
One for four. That’s the major missions scorecard for SpaceX in March. After a series of embarrassing failures, the company finally notched a huge win this past Friday by successfully launching another 4 astronauts to the ISS.
And like the world’s longest Uber ride, Crew 10 is on its way to relieve the Crew 9 astronauts, including their two “adopted” members, Starliner castaways Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams.
But, hey, at least they got in before the weekend. Because I hear that Uber surge pricing can be brutal for rides from Low Earth Orbit.
And I know, it’s more like one of five, but who’s really counting SPHEREx?
Anyway, by all accounts, the launch of Dragon Endeavor atop the flight proven Falcon 9 booster, B1090-2, went flawlessly – which had been the norm for almost all Falcon flights until recently.
However, with Wednesday’s scrub of the same mission, and the recent spate of post-landing engine fire issues, this workhorse rocket’s sterling reputation has begun to show a bit of tarnish.
And as much as I like pointing out the company’s missteps, given the irreplaceable nature of this Falcon 9’s “cargo,” I’m glad I don’t have to report on some catastrophic, vehicle destroying event – at least this week.
Because, you know, change – it’s a good thing!
Anyway, godspeed Crew 10, and fingers crossed for a safe and uneventful return of Crew 9 aboard their orbital Uber, Dragon Freedom.
Of course, one flawless launch does not a course correction make, and SpaceX still has a lot of lost ground to cover before it can claim to be “back on track.”
Case in point, the Starship program. With more and more focus directed at the vacuum raptor propellant feed lines as a possible common failure point for Ships 33 and 34, it feels like at least SOME progress is being made on identifying and rectifying whatever is causing all the Block 2 prototypes to blow up before reaching orbit.
But I do find it a bit confusing that the company continues to build NEW Block 2 ships, ostensibly using the same general design blueprint for those the came – and failed – before.
Ship 35, which was well under construction before Ship 34 decided to shed some engines mid-flight, is now done with cryo-testing and most likely receiving its own Raptor engines as we speak.
You boys had better behave!
Which means that the time for MAJOR engineering revisions has probably already come and gone, a fact that would seemingly doom Ship 35 to a similar, fiery fate.
As I noted in a previous video, it may ultimately prove IMPOSSIBLE to fully diagnose the Block 2 design flaws within the gravity and atmosphere of Earth. In fact, I posited that no campaign of static firings or other testing conducted outside of on-orbit conditions will likely yield a complete and thorough answer to the Block 2 “harmonic response” bug.
Maybe the new propulsion systems engineer they’ve been advertising for will help solve the riddle – though posting a job listing for someone to come help fix the Starship program is not the best look for SpaceX right now.
But at least they have Falcon 9 to fall back on when they need a PR-friendly “feel good” story. And after reporting on so many Starship flights – and failures – the comparatively diminutive scale of Falcon 9 when contrasted against Super Heavy makes you realize just how amazing it is that the latter can fly at all.
In fact, Super Heavy is becoming the new “star” off the Starship program, if only because it has the better track record of the two stages. It also doesn’t hurt that there are flight-proven Super Heavy boosters now loitering around the Starbase build site.
Meanwhile, the biggest remaining pieces of Ships 33 or 34 would barely fill a shoebox given their respective “energetic” mid-flight demise.
Speaking of exploding vehicles, the failures of Flights 7 and 8 point to a looming problem for the Starship program: A lack of flight-ready ships.
The unavailability of reliable ship test articles is becoming a major bottleneck to the program’s overall progress, as key on-orbit testing milestones – like Raptor relights and simulated Starlink V2 satellite deployments – keep getting pushed back.
But more importantly, the ongoing testing of new heat shield tile materials and design variants has come to a standstill as neither of the most recent flights ever made it to the atmospheric reentry phase.
And as I’ve mentioned many times before, without a durable, reliable, reusable heat shield, the Starship program is dead in the suborbital water.
Which is why this thread I stumbled across on X is so intriguing. It’s from an aerospace engineer, Dylan Small, who claims to be involved in Space Launch Systems R&D at Starbase.
According to Dylan, he pitched a proposal for a regenerative, liquid-cooled heat tile system to SpaceX. He says he submitted his proposal via the Siemens NX Computer Aided Design, Manufacturing, and Engineering platform while working on Super Heavy in the Mega Bay.
And while he couldn’t go into much detail – he says SpaceX now owns the IP – his comments point to a possible shift away from ceramic or similar static tiles – which he calls “not rapidly reusable technology.”
Dude, you’re preaching to the choir HERE!
Dylan also has some interesting ideas about boosting Raptor output through ionization of the propellant, however, the main takeaway is that SpaceX apparently has, in hand, designs for an active cooling system.
If SpaceX does go forward with a switch from passive to active cooling – at least for certain critical areas of the vehicle heat shield – it could provide the solution they’ve been looking for.
However, it would also necessarily add weight to the ship, as well as complexity. Though Dylan claims to have found a way to simplify the system by having it function using a closed loop, thus minimizing the amount of plumbing required to implement the design.
Good job, Dylan!
And, of course, any major change in such a fundamental design component would require additional engineering time and testing.
Which is why it is that much more urgent that SpaceX resolves its Block 2 vibration issues so that they can finally get their future test articles to the reentry stage in one piece.
Because, right now, they’re just tossing raw materials into the fire – literally. It gets kind of hot when all that propellant goes boom!
Bottom Line: It’s great that SpaceX managed to deliver another smiling crew to everyone’s favorite orbital outpost. And I’m sure the Starliner folks will be chaffing at the sight of Butch and Suni hitching a ride home as part of the space industry’s first “carpool” mission.
However, as good as this moment might feel for SpaceX, this is no time for them to rest on their laurels. They REALLY need to redouble their efforts and get the Starship program back on track ASAP. Because no amount of cute “zero-g indicator” moments can cover up what a royal cluster-flub these past few months have been.
Anyway, thanks for watching. If you enjoyed this content, please tell the world by liking the video and subscribing to the channel. And don’t forget the notification bell so you’re alerted when our next space-related rant drops.
But in the meantime, remember: Don’t look up! Because you might miss your orbital Uber, and it’s one hell of a walk home from LEO.
The Exoplanetary Society 
Leave a comment