From STARship to WARship? SpaceX and the Vanguard Program.

Summary: The potential military applications of SpaceX’s Starship have always been on the table. However, new developments in the far reaches of the Pacific show how far along the planning for the Pentagon’s “Vanguard” program really is. Expect to see some interesting developments, including a possible third Mechazilla site, in the near future.

Transcript: Welcome to the Edge of Space.

I’m your host, Randall C. Kennedy.

Everyone loves Mechazilla. Of all the components of the Starship launch system, it’s by far the most versatile – and also the most colorfully named. It launches. It catches. It does it all, and with style!

In fact, SpaceX is so enamored with its colossal “Stage Zero,” that it’s replicating it – at Boca Chica, at Launch Complex 39A, and…

…on a remote tropical atoll in the Pacific Ocean.

Wait, what?

Yes, you heard me right. In addition to Pad B at Starbase and its doppelganger in Florida, SpaceX may be building a Starship landing facility – for use by the United States military, no less – right in China’s backyard.

It’s all part of a program called Rocket Cargo Vanguard (RCV) – say that 10 times fast!

Yahoo News published an article on the subject last week, but I doubt many of you read it. It was lost in all the noise surrounding March third’s aborted launch attempt of Starship Flight 8.

In a nutshell, RCV is a program to explore the use of orbital rockets as a way to rapidly deliver men and material to any point on the globe. It calls for a system that can transport the payload equivalent of an Air Force C-17 Globemaster – close to 100 tons – to a desired landing zone, anywhere in the world, in an hour or less.

And if they’re late, the pizza’s free! Just kidding.

As a tactical concept, it’s both fascinating and terrifying at the same time – fascinating in that it shows some real out of the box, sci-fi thinking by the Pentagon, and terrifying because it effectively militarizes a potentially huge portion of the world’s orbital and suborbital flight regimes.

Fortunately for the world, the technology to fuel such a nightmarish bastardization of civilian commercial spaceflight has so far remained safely within the purview of science fiction – that is, until Starship came on the scene.

The Pentagon took one look at Elon’s massive rocket and immediately cracked open its wallet – to the tune of over $100 million – just to get a PEEK at data from inside the project’s drawers.

Now, the folks from the oddly shaped headquarters building are eagerly watching each new Integrated Flight Test as they fantasize about how many tanks or missiles or companies of men they might cram inside one those fat Starship cargo holds.

Look, I’m no Pollyanna. I understand that SpaceX is a private, commercial enterprise and thus free to sell – or sell out – to any organization or entity they choose to work with. Plus, the company already has a relationship with the US military as they provide launch services for surveillance satellites and other orbital assets of the US Reconnaissance Office.

But flinging high tech cameras and sensors into orbit is not the same thing as using space as a military supply corridor into one of the most hotly contested regions of the globe. And turning Starship into the equivalent of a flying supply depot brings up all sorts of thorny issues.

For example, if the military uses a Starship to transport weapons or troops, does that mean the vehicle is now considered a military asset?

Because, while civilian transports are frequently designated as off-limits during conflicts, military assets are fair game. And the thought of a near-peer geopolitical rival shooting US-flagged Starships out of the sky or orbit should be disturbing to all but the most fervent neocons.

Of course, it doesn’t help that the chosen test site for RCV, Johnston Island, has its own dark past. During the Cold War, Johnston was the host site for the infamous Starfish Prime nuclear test – i.e., the one where the US military detonated a massive nuclear warhead in orbit after launching it from the atoll atop a Thor missile.

Badddda Boom!

Later, Johnston was used as a storage facility for large quantities of chemical weapons – yay! – the last of which were only recently disposed of on-site via a massive incinerator.

Yeah, as tropical vacation destinations go, Johnston generally gets low marks from the Conde Naste people – though I hear the locally-sourced, 3-headed tuna is delicious.

As for how Mechazilla factors into all of this, any potential Starship landing site will require one of these chopstick-wielding wonders to catch the vehicles as they descend back to Earth to unload their cargo. Because, you know, it’s a Starship – no legs!

What’s less clear is if they’ll be supporting Super Heavy launches or recoveries at Johnston. Because that would require more than just a catch tower – they’d have to build out an entire launch and catch complex.

So far, the military is only talking about one-way, rapid delivery. Any expended vehicle would then be shipped back via barge or other suitable sea-faring transport. Still, I can imagine them expanding the facility should Starship prove to be a reliable solution.

Of course, right now it’s all just plans on digital paper. SpaceX still needs to prove that the Starship system is viable – though a one-way, barge-retrieved variant might not require the same rapid reusability characteristics as a commercial vehicle.

At this point, the Pentagon has given SpaceX until 2026 to prove out their RCV solution. A successful program will no doubt translate into a windfall for Mr. Musk and his minions – something to keep in mind when questioning the decision making behind various prototype flights and failures. Because, at the end of the day, Artemis and Mars aren’t the only narratives at play within the Starship story.

Bottom Line: It was only a matter of time before the military came knocking at Starship’s door. And as commercial, off-the-shelf solutions go, Starship’s massive cargo capacity and rapid delivery capabilities are hard to ignore. They would give the Pentagon a significant tactical advantage in terms of resource deployment in time-critical situations.

However, their use would also paint a giant, Starbase logo-sized target on each and every Starship to launch during an active conflict. And if you think it’s been “raining ships” lately, wait until China or Russia starts knocking them down mid-flight.

Here’s hoping it never comes to that, and that we all get to enjoy these heady days of breakneck progress with innocent eyes.

Anyway, thanks for watching. If you enjoyed this content, tell the world by smashing the like button and subscribing to the channel. And don’t forget to hit the notification bell so you’re alerted when we drop our next space-related rant.

Until then, remember: Don’t look up! Because not all starfish are friendly!