SpaceX: Time to Hit Reset?

Summary: As we sift through the pieces of yet another failed Starship launch, it’s time for the spaceflight community to take a step back and cast a critical eye on the very serious challenges still facing the program.

Transcript:

SpaceX: Time To Hit Reset?

Welcome to the edge of space.

I’m your host, Randall c Kennedy.

It was a tale of two rockets – a sort “best of times, worst of times” type situation.

The morning of March 6, 2025, saw another successful launch of ESA’s Ariane 6 heavy lift vehicle. And by early evening, we were all watching with bated breath as SpaceX attempted a do-over of Monday’s aborted Starship Integrated Flight Test 8.

As I mentioned in my previous two videos, a lot was riding on this flight. In fact, I described IFT-8 as an inflection point for SpaceX, a critical moment in time that might very well decide the future of the Starship program.

And as I watched booster 15 soar into the sky, with the shiny new ship 34 perched atop its broad shoulders, I felt a sense of relief. Perhaps my skepticism about the program after the failure of IFT-7 and the ongoing delays with IFT-8 was premature.

After all, this was SpaceX, the company that single handedly redefined the orbital launch market. Who was I to question their engineering prowess or to doubt the conventional wisdom that rapid reusability was really “just around the corner?”

And then, as things were truly looking 5×5 for IFT-8…the ship. Started. To spin.

And spin.

And spin.

It was pretty clear from the overlay graphics that several of Ship 34’s raptor engines had quit mid-flight, with the resulting loss of attitude control sending the vehicle tumbling wildly. Then, after a few minutes of tortured dizziness, it disintegrated in what felt like a repeat of the colorful fate that befell Ship 33 just a few weeks before.

Now, I really hate to be that guy – you know, the one who says, “I told you so.” However, it seems my instincts about SpaceX being stretched too thin were in fact right on target.

Between building out the Starlink constellation, supporting the US reconnaissance office, and providing commercial launch services – not to mention serving as the sole means of western crew rotation at the ISS – SpaceX has a very full plate. So, it really should come as no surprise that the company is struggling to achieve some of its more ambitious goals.

And the Starship system is the most ambitious goal of all, one that may ultimately prove impossible to achieve. Because, even if they solve the whole “splodey ship problem,” SpaceX still must overcome lingering issues with the heat shield materials, something they were supposed to focus on during these last two failed missions.

Which is why I have more recently become a rare voice of contrarianism regarding the state of the Starship program. Where others see an imminent future of unbridled human space exploration, I see significant, unresolved challenges plaguing a launch system that is at best half baked, and at worst fundamentally flawed.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I sincerely wish that Elon Musk’s amazing new rocket was everything that his most rabid fans make it out to be. Heck, I was enthusiastically cheering on the launch of IFT-8, hoping against hope that those geniuses down in Boca Chica would prove me wrong.

However, after all was said and done, my worst fears came true, and now we’re looking at what is likely to be a significant reset of the entire Starship program.

Because, at the end of the day, humanity cannot afford to tie its space faring future to any single man or company, no matter how brilliant or successful they may be.

So, where do we go from here? It seems foolish to keep throwing perfectly good raw materials into the sky until we have a sense of why this latest Starship design keeps failing. And as SpaceX sifts through both data and debris, I can’t imagine we’ll see another integrated flight test anytime soon – despite Mr. Musk’s optimistic assertions to the contrary.

Meanwhile, the Artemis program trudges along, with supporters of NASA’s Space Launch System undoubtedly seeing this latest setback as a strong argument in favor of preserving their pet program.

Unfortunately, SLS has its own issues, including a high cost per Kg to orbit – the downside of disposability – and a wonky Orion capsule that has its own heat shield problems. But at least their rocket hasn’t blown up repeatedly.

Now, to SpaceX’s credit, they really do seem to have the booster part of the equation down pat. Three successful catches, plus a fourth that probably would have been a success had the tower not lost communication, seems like a solid data set in support of Super Heavy’s viability.

However, it’s only half of SpaceX’s reuse equation. The other half is sitting in pieces at the bottom of the ocean.

At least it can keep its older sibling company.

And don’t get me started on what the Europeans are probably thinking right about now. Because Ariane 6 may be old school, but it has never failed to deliver a payload to orbit. Plus, that French-speaking, baguette-munching flight controller looked like a real badass.

Bottom line: As SpaceX navigates its way through the inevitable FAA investigation, it’s time for the spaceflight industry take a step back and cast a critical eye on the very real challenges facing Elon’s vision of rapid reusability.

Because, for better or for worse, we’ve allowed ourselves to become mesmerized by the sheer audacity of the Starship system, tossing both caution and common sense to the wind. In their place? A fanboyish enthusiasm to see our sci-fi dreams become reality.

I say let us now put away the childhood fantasies and take back control of America’s spaceflight narrative from Mr. Musk and his SpaceX minions. Because our future truly is written in the stars, and we can’t afford to surrender the pen to any single author.

Anyway thank you for watching. If you enjoyed this content, tell the world by smashing the like button and subscribing to the channel. And don’t forget to hit the notification bell so you’re alerted when my next space related rant drops.

Until then, remember: Don’t look up! Because SpaceX might be launching another Starship, and that ain’t confetti falling out of the sky.