SpaceX: Running Out of Gas?

Summary: As the Starship program continues to fall behind schedule, some are voicing skepticism about SpaceX’s ability to deliver on its promise of rapid reusability. It’s time to hold the company’s feet to the fire and demand proof that their system is truly capable of achieving its stated goals.

Transcript:

Is SpaceX Running Out of Gas?

Welcome to the Edge of Space.

I’m your host, Randall C. Kennedy

They say that “Space is hard.” And if the events surrounding Monday’s scrub of Starship Integrated Flight Test 8 are any indication, this old truism remains as timely as ever.

So, as I watched SpaceX de-stack ship and booster for additional checks, I couldn’t help but wonder: Are these folks finally getting stretched too thin?

After all, it’s just one company, with one brilliant founder. And though Elon Musk the man seems to be able to multitask like no human ever before, there must be some practical limit to how much any one individual can shoulder.

Which is why I keep going back to that interview with Joe Rogan. When asked about what obstacles remained to achieving SpaceX’s goal of for a rapidly reusable spacecraft, Musk seem to hesitate a bit before delving into the topic of heat shield tiles and the new material combinations that they hoped would stand up to repeated abuse.

Now far be it from me to try to read Elon musk’s mind. But the look on his face as he discussed the topic was not one that instilled confidence. In fact, after some notable recent setbacks, I think it would be fair to say that his mask, much like the starship program itself, is beginning to slip a bit.

Sure, they’ve had great success catching the booster. And those plasma light shows from the early suborbital flights were certainly entertaining. However, none of the prototype vehicles that have flown so far have returned in a condition that could be described as even semi-reusable.

And yet the space flight community as a whole continues to give Mr. Musk the benefit of the doubt, and to accept that his grand, multi-planetary vision of the future is seemingly just around the corner.

However, the harsh reality is that, until they successfully launch and recover a fully intact upper stage and do so in a state of repair that would allow it to be re-flown in short order, SpaceX has actually accomplished…well, a whole lot of nothing.

Yeah, they caught a “falling skyscraper” – i.e., the Super Heavy booster rocket. But, if we’re being honest, that was pretty much just a supersized manifestation of the same trick they’ve been pulling off with Falcon 9 for years.

No, the real challenge has always been the ship and its ability to reenter the atmosphere without being damaged – or destroyed. And as I noted in my previous video, there is as yet no evidence that SpaceX has achieved the necessary material science breakthroughs to accomplish this difficult goal.

Which is why I find the excessive cheerleading around everything that SpaceX does – or does not – accomplish, to be quite frustrating. The number of posts on X praising the company and the man and gushing over high-res drone footage of the malfunctioning launch vehicle in situ, were frankly ridiculous.

This was a scrub, people, and for a system that was supposed to have evolved well beyond the basics of just getting off the launch pad. To chalk this up as anything but an embarrassing failure is pure fanboyism at its darkest.

Now, some may accuse me of being uncharitable in my assessment. After all, SpaceX has managed to build an incredibly powerful rocket, one that has the potential to take us to the Stars.

However, unless fully realized, all the potential in the universe isn’t going to get us to the moon, or to Mars, or even to the other side of our own planet, as the US military is hoping to do through its vanguard program.

And as the timelines for critical programs, like Artemis, continue to slip, there comes a point where the spaceflight community will need to look past the hype and pretty photo ops and start to ask some hard questions.

For example, when will we see a practicable solution to the aforementioned heat tile issues? And what happens if their latest tile iterations fail to make the grade? Can the Starship program really survive the kind of significant delays that would be incurred by switching to an entirely different, perhaps active cooling model?

And if SpaceX ultimately does abandon passive cooling, why did it take so long for them to figure out they were on the wrong path?

It’s not like humanity doesn’t have experience with the materials science of re-entry. Veterans of the space shuttle program I’m sure have a thing or two to say about it. Yet, if SpaceX’s efforts ultimately fail to bear fruit, the company’s pursuit of passive cooling will prove to have been a costly diversion for a firm whose ambition is beginning to outstrip its ability to deliver.

Now, don’t get me wrong. I, too, am a huge fan of SpaceX, and of the man himself, Elon Musk. My initial instinct is to trust in the Musk, because he truly is a once-in-a-generation, transformational figure.

However, the stakes are now just too darn high for the space flight community to not hold both parties’ feet to the collective fire.

We’re talking about the future of humanity here. Mankind needs to conquer the stars, if for no other reason than to ensure our species’ continued existence in a hostile universe.

Bottom Line: Enough with the glad-handing. If the now rescheduled Integrated Flight Test 8 is not a rousing success, I say it’s time to turn up the heat on SpaceX and demand proof that they can truly overcome this last “great filter” to a rapidly reusable space flight future.

Anyway, thanks for watching. If you enjoyed this content, show the world by smashing that like button and subscribing to the channel. And don’t forget to hit the notification bell so you’re alerted when my next space-related rant drops.

Until then, remember: Don’t look up! Because those Starship heat tiles can be a bit crumbly.